Four days ago we confirmed a full daily reversal against the weekly trend: DXY Bullish, GBPUSD Bearish, EURUSD Bearish, triggered by Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone. We called it a pullback rather than a reversal specifically because the DXY Bias Score hadn't moved with it. Publishing this now, ahead of today's August NFP release at 12:30pm GMT, because the daily has already started swinging back — and the next few hours on the 4HR timeframe will likely decide which read was right.
The Daily Is Swinging Back
Going into today's release: DXY has swung back to Bearish. EURUSD has swung back to Bullish. Both are now back in line with the weekly trend. GBPUSD is the one lagging this time — still Bearish on the daily, holding onto the post-Jackson-Hole reversal even as DXY and EUR have already reverted.
| Pair | Weekly (unchanged throughout) | Daily, 4 days ago | Daily, now (pre-NFP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | Bearish | Bullish (post-JH reversal) | Bearish — reverted |
| EURUSD | Bullish | Bearish (post-JH reversal) | Bullish — reverted |
| GBPUSD | Bullish | Bearish (post-JH reversal) | Bearish — still lagging |
Notice the symmetry with the last post: it was EURUSD lagging behind DXY and GBPUSD back when the reversal was forming. Now it's GBPUSD lagging behind DXY and EURUSD as the move reverts. Same partial-break pattern, opposite direction, one timeframe's worth of whipsaw later.
The 4HR Decision Tree Going Into NFP
Here's the framework for reading what happens next, and — fittingly — it's a mirror image of the one we used last time.
If the 4HR Confirms the Post-Jackson-Hole Reversal
If DXY shifts Bullish on the 4HR and holds, while EURUSD and GBPUSD both shift Bearish on the 4HR and hold, that tells us the daily's current swing back toward the weekly direction was the fake move. In that case, the post-Jackson-Hole reversal (DXY Bullish, EUR/GBP Bearish) was the real one, and today's daily reversion back to the weekly direction gets undone.
If the 4HR Confirms the Reversion to the Weekly Trend
If instead the 4HR holds DXY Bearish (in line with both the weekly and where the daily has just reverted to), and EURUSD and GBPUSD both hold Bullish on the 4HR, that's the setup that would likely pull GBPUSD's daily bias back in line too — completing a full daily realignment back with the weekly trend. In that scenario, the post-Jackson-Hole reversal turns out to have been the pullback all along, and the weekly trend resumes as the dominant structure across every timeframe.
The weekly hasn't wavered through any of this daily whipsaw: DXY Bearish, EURUSD Bullish, GBPUSD Bullish, unchanged since we first confirmed full alignment three weeks ago. From a pure technical standpoint, that's still the dominant structure — DXY headed lower, EURUSD and GBPUSD headed higher — with the daily and 4HR currently working out the details of how it gets there.
Why This Lines Up With Today's Release
This technical setup and today's macro catalyst are arriving at almost exactly the same moment, which is part of why we wanted this published before the numbers land rather than after. The DXY Bias Score currently sits at −1 — right at the edge of the Bearish threshold, propped up against several dovish-leaning components (the July NFP miss, soft CPI, soft PPI, cooling wages) by three separate hawkish-leaning developments in just the past week: COT positioning stalling out, the Jackson Hole-driven CME repricing, and the US-Iran re-escalation on August 31.
CME hike odds for September have also been sliding back toward a coin-flip heading into today — 50.2% as of this morning, down from last week's post-Jackson-Hole peak of 57.5%. The market itself is genuinely uncertain right now, which tracks with a technical picture that's mid-whipsaw rather than settled.
A strong NFP beat today would tend to support the 4HR confirming the Jackson-Hole-reversal scenario — hawkish data reinforcing a hawkish-leaning technical shift. A soft print, especially one that echoes July's outright miss, would tend to support the reversion-to-weekly scenario instead. Either way, today's release and the 4HR close are likely to tell the same story.
What We're Publishing Next
We're following this up right after the NFP numbers land. That post will cover the actual release, what it does to the DXY Bias Score, and — critically — whether the 4HR direction going into the release held or flipped once the data actually hit the tape.