SOG Capital · Macro Policy Tracker

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How this tracker works

Your 60-second guide before diving into the data

Three reports. One story.

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Every month, three major data releases shape the direction of markets and interest rates — the Fed Meeting (FOMC), the Jobs Report (NFP), and the Inflation Report (CPI). This tracker pulls them into a single, connected narrative so you never have to read three separate reports again.

What each section tells you

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FOMC — what the Fed decided on interest rates and why. NFP — how many jobs the economy added and what it signals. CPI — how fast prices are rising and whether inflation is cooling. Each panel is written in plain English — no finance degree needed.

The dollar bias engine

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Every data point feeds into a DXY bias score — a single read on whether the macro picture currently favours a stronger or weaker US dollar. It synthesises the Fed stance, jobs strength, inflation trend, and how large traders are positioned in USD futures (COT data).

How to read it, cycle by cycle

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Start at the pipeline bar to see which reports are done and which are upcoming. Work through the data panels left to right — Fed → Jobs → Inflation. Then read the narrative section to see how the three connect. Finish at the DXY section for the bottom-line market implication.

✓ Data current —

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This cycle at a glance

Fed Meeting (FOMC)

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Complete

The Fed's job: keep prices stable at 2% and keep people employed. Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive and slows the economy.

Jobs Report (NFP)

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Complete

Lots of jobs = people have money to spend = prices can stay elevated. Fewer jobs = economy cooling = Fed pressure to cut rates.

Inflation Report (CPI)

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CPI measures how much everyday things — food, rent, petrol — cost vs a year ago. The Fed targets 2%. Too high: hold or hike. Too low: cut.

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See why the dollar is biased this way

The Fed, jobs and inflation breakdown
What drove the DXY score: PPI, CPI, COT
COT positioning and what to watch next
Excel export and the full history log

or just get an email when the bias changes

Jobs breakdown by sector —

⚡ PPI — Producer Price Index · Inflation Pipeline Indicator

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📊 CME FedWatch · Market Rate Expectations

What the market is betting the Fed does next

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Next FOMC Meeting —

Market-implied rate —

🎓 What is CME FedWatch? (Beginner guide)

The story connecting all three

What the Fed said

What the jobs data showed

The PPI read

The inflation read

What the macro story means for the US dollar (DXY)

DXY · Dollar Index · Macro Bias

Where the dollar is likely headed — and why

Synthesised from Fed, CME Rate Odds, Jobs, PPI, Inflation & COT positioning data

Current bias

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COT — Speculative Positioning (CFTC)

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Non-Commercial (Large Speculator) Net Positioning · USD Index

Net Contracts

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Week-on-Week Change

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Longs / Shorts

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Net positioning sentiment (scaled to ±20,000)

Weekly momentum — change in net (scaled to ±5,000)

Plain English — what is the DXY and why does macro move it?

The DXY (US Dollar Index) measures how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of six major currencies — mainly the euro, yen, and pound. Why do macro reports move it? The dollar is driven by one question: what will the Fed do with interest rates? Higher rates make US assets pay out more — global investors buy dollars to access them, pushing it up. Lower rates do the opposite. The three monthly reports are the main ingredients the market uses to answer that question. COT shows how large speculative traders are positioned in USD futures — a net long position means momentum traders are backing dollar strength; net short means they're betting against it.

What to watch next for the dollar

Download a fully formatted Excel workbook with all data, the macro story, sector breakdown, and historical log — ready to share with clients or keep as a record.

Historical log — cycle by cycle

Month	Decision	Rate	Jobs K	Fcst K	U-3%	U-6%	LFPR%	Wages MoM	Wages YoY	CPI MoM	CPI YoY	Core CPI	Biggest Risk	Story

Quick-reference glossary — plain English only

NFPTotal US jobs added each month (farming excluded). The headline number markets react to most.

U-3The official unemployment rate — people without a job who are actively searching for one.

U-6The broader rate. Includes people who gave up looking AND those stuck in part-time work. Always higher and more honest than U-3.

LFPRLabor Force Participation Rate. Share of adults working or actively job hunting. Falls = headline rate can look better than reality.

AHEAverage Hourly Earnings — how fast worker pay is rising. High wages → more spending → more inflation risk.

CPIConsumer Price Index. How much everyday goods and services cost vs a year ago. The main inflation gauge.

Core CPICPI minus food and energy (too volatile). Gives a smoother, more reliable picture of underlying inflation.

ShelterRent and housing costs inside CPI. The biggest slice (~35%) and very slow to change. Lags real rents by about a year.

SupercoreCore services ex-housing. The Fed's favourite measure — the clearest signal of sticky, stubborn inflation.

BpsBasis points. 1bp = 0.01%. A "25bp cut" = rates fall 0.25%. A "100bp hike" = rates rise 1%.

Dual mandateThe Fed's two legal goals: maximum employment AND stable 2% inflation. They often pull in opposite directions.

COTCommitments of Traders. CFTC report showing how large speculative traders are positioned in USD futures each week.