If you follow our Macro Tracker, you saw something that looks odd. On October 28 the Fed sounded firm, with two members voting for a hike, yet our DXY Bias Score fell from +6 to +4. The next morning it rose to +5. This post explains both moves step by step, and why neither one is a mistake.
First, a 30-second reminder of how the score works
The score is made of ten drivers. Each one gives the dollar index (DXY) a vote: +1 if the data supports a stronger dollar, 0 if it is neutral, and −1 if it points to a weaker dollar. One driver, producer prices, can count double when the surprise is big. We add up the votes. A total of +1 or more means “Bullish DXY”.
The important part is that the score follows fixed rules, not opinions or the tone of a speech. That is what makes it honest: if a rule is triggered, the number moves, even when the headline feels different.
Move 1: from +6 down to +4 (October 28, Fed day)
Two drivers lost a point each:
| Driver | Before the Fed | After the Fed | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed policy decision | +1 | 0 | The rule is: hike +1, hold 0, cut −1. September was a hike. October was a hold. |
| Fed dot plot (SEP) | +1 | 0 | The dot plot only counts in a meeting that publishes new projections. September did. October did not, so it goes neutral until December. |
That is two points gone: +6 − 2 = +4. Notice that nothing about this means the Fed became softer. The two members who voted for a hike show the opposite. A hold simply scores less than a hike under our rules. You can read the full statement in our Fed decision post.
Move 2: from +4 up to +5 (October 29)
One driver gained a point: the CME FedWatch driver. CME FedWatch shows what traders in the futures market are betting the Fed will do at its next meeting. Our rule is simple: if the chance of a hike is above 30%, it scores +1.
Before the decision, the “next meeting” was the one on October 28, with only a 10.5% hike chance, so the driver was 0. Once that meeting passed, the next one is December 8–9, and here is what the market now says:
| CME FedWatch, December 8–9 meeting | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hike to 4.00–4.25% | 80.3% |
| No change at 3.75–4.00% | 19.7% |
| Ease (cut) | 0% |
That is far above 30%, so the driver is now +1, and +4 + 1 = +5. The hike odds also did not appear from nowhere. They were 49.4% on September 29, 73.3% on October 22 and 78.3% on October 27, so the market has been moving towards a hike for a month.
The full scoreboard today
| Driver | Score | In plain English |
|---|---|---|
| Fed policy decision | 0 | Hold |
| Fed dot plot (SEP) | 0 | No new projections this meeting |
| CME FedWatch | +1 | December hike 80.3% |
| Inflation (CPI) | +1 | Inflation higher than the month before |
| Producer prices (PPI) | +2 | A big upside surprise, so it counts double |
| Broad unemployment (U-6) | +1 | Lower than before |
| COT positioning | +1 | Big traders are net long the dollar by 15,044 contracts (above our 5,000 line), as of October 20 |
| Geopolitics | +1 | Tension supports the dollar as a safe haven |
| Jobs report (NFP) | −1 | Fewer jobs than expected |
| Wages | −1 | Wage growth softer than expected |
| Total | +5 | Bullish DXY |
Count it yourself: 0 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 − 1 − 1 = 5.
What this teaches beginners
- A score is a snapshot, not a prediction. It tells you how many parts of the picture support the dollar right now. It does not say price will go up today.
- Some drivers are facts, others are expectations. The Fed decision is a fact. CME odds are traders’ expectations, and they can change in a day. That is why the CME point moved so fast.
- A small change in the score is not a signal by itself. Going from +4 to +5 inside the same “Bullish” zone changes the story very little. A move across zero would matter much more.
- Always check the chart. We keep saying this: the score is the macro side. Price decides when and whether you act. Our yields guide shows how to line up the 2-year yield with the score.
What could move the score next
- CME December odds. If the hike chance falls below 30%, the driver goes back to 0 and the score drops to +4. This is the most changeable driver.
- COT report, Friday October 30. It updates the positioning driver. It scores +1 while the net long stays above 5,000 contracts; the last reading was 15,044.
- US jobs report, November 6. It updates the jobs, wages and U-6 drivers.
- US inflation (CPI), November 10 and producer prices (PPI), November 13. Both can move the score by one or two points.
- The Fed’s December 8–9 meeting. A hike would bring the Fed driver back to +1, and the new dot plot would bring that driver back as well.
The risks
- The score uses rules and data that can be revised. A single data release can move it by several points.
- A Bullish DXY score does not guarantee the dollar index will rise. Price can fall while the score is positive, as we showed in our post on bullish bias with falling price.
- Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. This is education, not a trade recommendation or financial advice.
Where the numbers come from
The CME FedWatch probabilities are from the CME Group FedWatch tool as of October 29, 2026. The Fed decision is from the FOMC statement of October 28, 2026. Every driver and its history is logged in our Macro Tracker, including the score history table.