Updated with the press conference. We have added the opening statement from Chair Warsh’s press conference (section below). The question-and-answer part is not included, because we have only the prepared opening remarks.
The Fed decided on interest rates today, and it was not a simple “no change”. The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00%, but two of the twelve voters wanted to raise them. That is what traders call a “hawkish hold”: no hike, but a message that leans towards one. This post goes through the statement in plain English, shows what changed from September, and explains why our DXY Bias Score went from +6 to +4 even though the message sounds firm.
What happened, in one table
| September 16 | October 28 (today) | |
|---|---|---|
| Decision | Raised rates by 0.25% (a hike) | Held rates (no change) |
| Rate range | 3.75–4.00% | 3.75–4.00% |
| Vote | 12–0, everyone agreed | 10–2 |
| Who disagreed | Nobody | Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who wanted a 0.25% hike |
| New projections (dot plot) | Yes. The 2026 dot moved up to 4.1% | No. This meeting had none |
The interest the Fed pays banks on their reserves stays at 3.90%, and the other tools it uses to keep rates in the range are unchanged.
What is a dissent, and why does it matter?
The Fed’s decision is made by a vote. A dissent is a “no” vote against the majority. Dissents are rare enough that traders read them as a clue about what could come next. Here both “no” votes were for more tightening, not less. That tells us the debate inside the Fed is about whether to raise rates again soon, not about whether to cut. The last dissents were in July, when three members also wanted a hike.
The statement, line by line
| What it says | What it means in plain English |
|---|---|
| “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” | The Fed sees a strong economy. That gives it room to keep rates high or raise them. |
| “Inflation remains elevated.” | Prices are still rising too fast. This is still the Fed’s main worry. |
| “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” | The next move depends on the data. No promise either way. September said the hike “will support a timelier return”; that line is gone, because there was no hike to defend. |
| “The Committee will deliver price stability.” | The promise to bring inflation down is repeated. |
| “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” | Jobs are steady in the Fed’s view, even though our tracker shows a weak September jobs report. |
| “Uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments.” | The Fed is keeping an eye on the Gulf and oil. |
Why it is called a “hawkish hold”
A hawk is someone who favours higher interest rates to fight inflation. A dove favours lower rates to help growth. A “hawkish hold” means the Fed did nothing, but its words and votes lean hawkish: a strong economy, elevated inflation, and two members voting for a hike. A “dovish hold” would be the opposite.
Why our DXY Bias Score went down, not up
This confuses people, so here is the honest answer. The statement sounds firm, but our score follows fixed rules, not the tone of the statement. Two things changed:
- The Fed policy driver went from +1 to 0. It scores a hike +1, a hold 0 and a cut −1. September was a hike. Today is a hold.
- The dot-plot driver went from +1 to 0. It only counts when the Fed publishes new projections, and this meeting had none.
That takes two points off, so the score moves from +6 to +4. It is still Bullish DXY. The other drivers did not change. One more piece is still to come: the CME FedWatch driver is still reading the October meeting, which is over. Update, October 29: we have refreshed it. CME FedWatch now prices a hike at the December 8–9 meeting at 80.3% (no change 19.7%, ease 0%). Above 30% scores +1, so the score is back to +5.
The takeaway: the score is a snapshot of the data and the decisions, not a mood reading. The two hawkish dissents are real information, but they are not one of the ten drivers. That is why we read the score together with the charts and the yields, as in our yields guide.
Update: what Chair Warsh said at the press conference
These are points from his prepared opening statement. He did not say whether the Fed will raise rates in December.
- The economy is strong. He said growth is “expanding at a strong pace”, and that third-quarter growth is likely above 3%, with business investment rising at about a double-digit pace.
- Jobs are fine. Unemployment claims are at their lowest in generations, so he described the employment side as “quite positive”. This is why he sees no need to protect growth.
- Inflation is the focus. It has been above target “for close to 6 years”, and he said “it’s our responsibility to get inflation down”. The two-day discussion “focused mainly on the price stability side”. He also said energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks.
- Financial conditions. They have tightened since September, but he said he is “unwilling and unable to call them tight”. That leaves room for more tightening.
- Readiness to act. “We’ve made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.” Future decisions depend on the information that comes in.
- A schedule change. From 2027, one of the eight meetings will be only for strategy, with no rate vote and no statement. It does not change anything for this year.
Our reading: the tone is hawkish, and it fits the 80.3% December hike odds. But there is no promise. Watch the PCE inflation report today and the jobs report on November 6.
What to watch next
- Any Fed speakers after the meeting. The Chair did not explain the two dissents in his opening remarks, so listen for Cook and Hammack.
- The 2-year yield and the dollar index. If the market hears a firmer Fed, the 2-year yield should rise and the dollar should firm up. If not, the dollar may pause.
- Thursday, 12:30 GMT: US growth (GDP) and PCE inflation. A hot PCE would add weight to the dissenters’ case. The ECB follows at 13:15 GMT, which makes Thursday busy for EURUSD.
- Friday, about 03:00 GMT: the Bank of Japan. It matters for USDJPY.
- Next jobs report on November 6 and CPI on November 10.
A safe plan for beginners
- Do not trade the first minutes after the statement or during the press conference. Prices jump both ways and the spread gets wider.
- Wait for a candle close on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart before deciding anything.
- Check that DXY, EURUSD and GBPUSD agree. If one does not, stay out of that pair. This is our rule.
- Keep your size small and use a stop loss. Our notional value guide shows how to size a trade.
The risks
- Central bank days cause big, fast moves and wide spreads. Prices can skip your stop loss.
- This post is based on the statement only. The press conference can change the picture within minutes.
- Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. This is education, not a trade recommendation or financial advice.
Where the numbers come from
The statement, the vote and the dissents come from the Federal Reserve’s own FOMC statement released on October 28, 2026 at 2:00 pm New York time. The September comparison and the DXY Bias Score come from our Macro Tracker. For the week’s other central banks, see our central bank week guide. The press conference points come from the Fed’s preliminary transcript of the Chair’s opening statement.